Europe and Spain urgently need energy decisions that take into account the trilemma and reverse the trends

The Naturgy Foundation and the Cercle d’Economía have today organised a conference to analyse the situation of the energy sector in the complex international situation currently being experienced, from a national and European perspective, with the aim of providing a comprehensive view of the future of the energy system and its impact on the economy and geopolitics.

The session was attended by leading experts and representatives from the institutional, academic and business spheres. Among them, Klaus-Dieter Borchardt, former director general of Energy of the European Commission, who gave a European vision; Mariano Marzo, Emeritus Professor of Stratigraphy and Historical Geology at the University of Barcelona, who provided the national point of view; Ángel Saz-Carranza, Director of Esade Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics, who commented on the more geopolitical side; and Elisabet Alier, President of ALIER, S.A. and member of the Board of Directors of the Cercle d’Economia, who was in charge of providing the business side. The meeting also included a debate moderated by Núria Mas, professor of economics at IESE and member of the Board of Directors of the Cercle d’Economia, in which the four speakers took part.

In his speech, Ángel Saz-Carranzawarned that “we are living in a world where the institutions that sustained globalisation are being overtaken by the United States, which has important implications for Europe and for Spain”. In his opinion, “we are entering a stage in which disputes are resolved on the basis of power and not rules, which generates mistrust and barriers for companies and for the global economy”. Saz-Carranza recalled that since 2010 we have witnessed “slowbalisation”, marked by trade stagnation and a setback in the political will for integration.

Ángel Saz-Carranza pointed out that “the rise of China, populism and the defence of national sovereignty largely explain this change of era, where multilateral institutions are losing weight and geopolitical competition is intensifying”. He further stressed that this phenomenon has a direct impact on energy, a sector that “has become a central area of strategic rivalry, with China dominating much of the new technologies thanks to its model of state capitalism”. He concluded by warning that “the energy transition, far from being just an environmental challenge, is becoming a field of global dispute, where tensions emerge over costs, access to raw materials and the distribution of responsibilities between countries”.

During his speech, Klaus-Dieter Borchardt outlined how Europe must face a transformed energy landscape through the Clean Industrial Deal, which combines decarbonisation, competitiveness and innovation. “Measures are being considered to make energy cheaper, boost clean demand markets, make electricity management more flexible, improve efficiency, simplify the regulatory framework and mobilise large public and private investments, with a planned European budget of €2 trillion between 2028 and 2034, 35% of which will go to climate objectives. Borchardt concluded that “all of this is about ensuring affordable, secure and sustainable energy, while reducing dependence on the outside world and redefining geopolitical alliances”.

For his part, Mariano Marzo stressed that “the energy transition in Spain has been more additive than substitutive, with the sole exception of coal, and technologies such as nuclear continue to be key”. He recalled that “the commitment to electrification and renewables has not yielded the expected results and, without storage, up to 35% of generation could be wasted by 2026”. He also warned of the challenges of digitalisation and mobility, such as the expected sharp increase in electric vehicles and the continuous supply required by data centres.

According to Mariano Marzo, “the PNIEC 24-30 is technologically biased, more ambitious than the European objectives and puts industrial competitiveness at risk”. He called for “a realistic roadmap that combines sustainability with competitiveness, accessibility and security”. Against this, he defended taking advantage of strengths such as “refining, the export of renewables and the potential of biomass”, and concluded that “Spain and Europe need urgent and pragmatic decisions to guarantee industrial viability and the success of the energy transition”.

The business vision was provided by Elisabet Alier, who pointed out that “energy is a strategic factor for industry, as it can represent between 30% and 50% of its costs”. He commented that “this situation puts Spanish industry at a competitive disadvantage compared to the United States, China or even other European countries, where prices are lower”. In his opinion, this entails “a real risk of loss of competitiveness, relocation, reduced ability to attract investment and increased vulnerability to market volatility”. He also warned that “any industrial project needs energy and any decarbonisation project requires a grid capable of supporting it, but currently we do not have the necessary capacity”.

Alier argued that “the industry is committed to decarbonisation and to boosting renewables, but we need to simplify and speed up permits, align renewable planning with industrial planning, modernise the grid and facilitate investment in storage”. He also called for “streamlining administrative processes, strengthening social acceptance through more information and education, and creating a competitive, predictable and European-aligned framework so that industry can be a key player in the energy transition”.

At the opening of the conference, the Director General of the Cercle d’Economia, Miquel Nadal, stressed that “the price of electricity in Europe is three times higher than in the United States and twice as high as in China”. A reality that he attributed to the fact that “Europe is a continent poor in fossil resources, historically dependent on third countries, and which has also lacked a solid energy policy and sufficient interconnections between states”. According to Nadal, “the war in Ukraine has aggravated this fragility, as it has meant giving up Russian oil, which until then had been a comfortable dependency, and has left Europe in a situation of great vulnerability”.

The director general of the Cercle d’Economia pointed out that “in the long term, the only way Europe will be competitive is with renewable energies”, although he acknowledged that “the deployment of renewables is expensive and the transition may compromise the competitiveness and even the viability of industries such as the automobile industry”. This is why he insisted that the Green Deal, which sets very ambitious decarbonisation targets, “will only be politically, socially and economically acceptable if it is accompanied by an incentive policy that makes its consequences acceptable”. Because, he stressed, “what is at stake is not only an important part of European industry, but also the very project of Community integration”.

In his welcoming remarks, Rafael Villaseca, President of the Naturgy Foundation, stated that “the energy transition is essential, but the right recipe has not yet been found: the objectives set do not correspond to the means available and this is generating adverse effects”. According to Villaseca, “no one doubts the urgency to act on climate change or the need to make progress on sustainability, but there has been a tendency to oversimplify the real costs and implications of renewables. Although their marginal costs are close to zero, they require heavy investments in generation, grids and storage, as well as the need to back them up with technologies such as combined cycle.

For Villaseca, this means that “the transition, far from being cheap, will have an enormous impact on industrial sectors and citizens, in a context of budgetary constraints and geostrategic tensions over critical raw materials”. The president of the Naturgy Foundation pointed out that the great challenge is for the transition to be effective, fair and sustainable, in which all its consequences must be considered and without compromising competitiveness, employment and social cohesion.

At the end of the session, María Eugenia Coronado, Director General of the Naturgy Foundation, added her voice “to the words we have heard here today, and that is that the energy environment is extremely complex, with enormous challenges and risks that we often do not fully appreciate”. Maria Eugenia Coronado defended the importance of dissemination to raise awareness of its impact on competitiveness, security, sustainable development and compliance with decarbonisation targets, which “it will be difficult for us to reach before 2050”.

At the end of the conference, the Vice-President of the Cercle d’Economia and Corporate General Manager of Colonial , Carmina Ganyet , pointed out that “energy autonomy is a technical challenge, but also a strategic and political one”. “The aim is to make energy cleaner, more affordable and secure at the same time, as set out in Professor Marzo’s energy trilemma”, stressed Ganyet, who also warned that the European reality shows that energy autonomy “is still limited”.

The vice-president of the Cercle d’Economia stressed that the energy transition requires multiple solutions, including “the sustained growth of renewables, the development of biofuels and synthetic fuels, nuclear energy with new options, such as modular reactors, and, in certain cases, even fossil energies accompanied by CO₂ capture and storage technologies”. Carmina Ganyet stressed that “innovation is the lever that can transform these solutions that today are costly or immature into viable and competitive options”. She also stressed that Spain has “a privileged position” thanks to its solar and wind resources, gas infrastructure and green hydrogen potential. Ganyet warned that in Catalonia “deployment has clearly been slower than in the rest of Spain” and that catching up requires “clear planning, regulatory stability and a shared effort between administrations, companies and civil society”. Finally, she stressed that “the decarbonisation of the energy model is not a destination, it is a process and has multiple dimensions”.

In closing, David Lizoain, Director General of Analysis and Economic Prospective of the Generalitat de Catalunya, pointed out that “when we talk about energy, we are talking about security” and that “if the main duty of public administrations is to guarantee security, energy inevitably becomes a priority for the country”. He stressed that “sustainability is absolutely fundamental to human security and the costs of inaction will be far greater than the costs of investing in prevention, adaptation and resilience”. He also warned that “the price of energy is fundamental for our economic security, for our companies, our welfare and our entire economic model”, arguing that “a diversification of the energy mix will be absolutely fundamental and that this transformation cannot be done by anyone alone”.